John Cox

Blogs · @wyome

Tagged economics · everything

Why are Americans struggling on $100,000? This breakdown offers clues | The Independent

The article argues that a $100,000 salary no longer buys the comfortable lifestyle it once did, using an Independent analysis that puts average household monthly costs at $8,856 against about $8,333 in gross monthly pay. It contends that the real gap depends on location, children, debt, and especially lifestyle creep, with experts suggesting $150,000 now feels like the old $100,000 and that financial stability comes from flexibility and savings rather than any particular salary.

Permalink

50 Ideas That Changed My Life

This is a collection of fifty conceptual frameworks and decision-making principles spanning economics, psychology, physics, and strategy—designed as mental models to improve thinking and life decisions. The ideas range from logical concepts like Occam's Razor and opportunity cost to behavioral insights like preference falsification and mimetic desire, arranged to illustrate how understanding systems, human nature, and hidden patterns can reveal overlooked opportunities and avoid common pitfalls. The author presents these as guiding principles that sharpen critical thinking by revealing what's counterintuitive, hidden in plain sight, or systematically ignored by conventional wisdom.

Permalink

AI Is Creating "Doom Loops" All Over the Economy

Unredacted legal documents from the New York Times' copyright lawsuit against Microsoft and OpenAI reveal internal company admissions that AI creates "doom loops"—systems where AI monetizes human-created content while simultaneously destroying the economic incentives and conditions needed to produce that content in the first place. The article catalogs these doom loops across journalism, music, film, education, and recruitment, showing how AI companies knowingly built business models that cannibalize their own supply chains and harm workers across creative industries. Microsoft's own internal documents acknowledged this paradox explicitly: the technology relies on fresh cultural content to function while the products themselves undermine creators' ability to earn livelihoods, ultimately threatening the open web and broader economy.

Permalink

What's Upsetting the Bond Market? - The Big Picture

Bond markets are struggling due to five major crosscurrents: inflationary policies (tariffs and war), Fed disruption under new leadership that's changing how the central bank operates and communicates, confusion about what inflation target makes sense in today's economy, ineffective Treasury buybacks, and rapidly rising debt servicing costs on a $40 trillion national debt. The author argues that these self-inflicted policy wounds—lack of Fed clarity, Treasury gimmickry, and counterproductive White House policies—have sent bond yields higher as markets react to actions rather than stated intentions, and recommends bond investors seek higher yields through municipal bonds and TIPS while broader policy dysfunction continues.

Permalink

Elizabeth Kolbert: Why Are We So Busy? : The New Yorker

Keynes predicted in 1928 that by 2028, technological progress would make us so wealthy that we'd work only three hours a day, forcing us to solve the "problem" of abundant leisure—but the opposite has occurred, with GDP growth sixteenfold yet working hours unchanged or increased. The article surveys competing explanations for this puzzle: some economists blame human insatiability and the hedonic treadmill of consumption, others point to cultural conditioning around work and leisure, and still others note that high earners face greater incentive to work long hours because the opportunity cost of their time is so enormous. The piece suggests we've collectively failed Keynes's challenge to reimagine a society no longer organized around accumulation.

Permalink

Elizabeth Kolbert: Why Are We So Busy? : The New Yorker

Keynes predicted in 1928 that by 2028 economic growth would be so abundant that people would work only fifteen hours a week, freeing humanity to enjoy leisure and culture—yet today Americans work longer hours than ever despite vastly increased wealth, a puzzle that economists attribute variously to unlimited consumer desire, cultural conditioning toward consumption, the meaning derived from work itself, and the specific incentives facing high earners who sacrifice leisure to maintain competitive advantage. The article surveys these competing explanations while following journalist Brigid Schulte's investigation into contemporary "overwhelm," particularly how women shoulder disproportionate housework and childcare alongside paid employment, suggesting that the failure of Keynes's vision reflects both our inability to stop wanting more material goods and our unwillingness to fundamentally reorganize how we value work and leisure.

Permalink

Trucking used to be a ticket to the middle class. Now it’s just another low-wage job.

Port truck drivers in New Jersey have been devastated by decades of deregulation that converted unionized employees into misclassified "independent contractors," leaving them earning roughly $28,000 annually while bearing all costs for fuel, tolls, insurance, and equipment. The Teamsters union has pushed legislation to presume drivers are employees unless companies prove otherwise, but faces opposition from the trucking industry, the governor's office, and even some drivers themselves—including organizer Edisson Villacis, who fears that reclassification would destroy the informal Latino-owned service businesses that depend on independent operators. The article explores how this shift has created an exploitative system where companies benefit from unpaid waiting time and uncompensated delays while drivers like Miguel Tigre face bankruptcy, health crises, and impossible working conditions.

Permalink

Questions that are rarely asked (are we ready for “home college”?)

Robbins proposes a market-based alternative to traditional college: families could pool resources to hire a single highly-qualified professor to teach a small cohort through a customized first-year curriculum at roughly one-third the cost of private college tuition, with students then transferring into degree-granting institutions at the sophomore or junior level. This arrangement would provide intensive instruction in writing, research, and oral presentation skills—particularly valuable for international students—while solving the cost problem that makes selective higher education inaccessible to many families. Robbins argues that if homeschooling has achieved legitimate accreditation at the secondary level, there is no fundamental barrier to creating similar credentialing pathways for this kind of semi-private undergraduate education.

Permalink

We Don’t Need Daylight Saving Time

Daylight Saving Time was created in the early 20th century to reduce evening lighting consumption, but modern research shows it actually increases overall electricity usage by 0.6 to 4 percent while also raising fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, costing Americans $434 million annually. The practice has significant health consequences, including a 5 percent spike in heart attacks during the spring transition and increased depression and suicide rates following the time shift due to sleep disruption. Most of the world has abandoned or never adopted DST—only 20 percent of the global population uses it, and 14 countries have discontinued it this century.

Permalink

144 Republicans Who Voted For Default - Business Insider

During the 2013 government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis, 144 House Republicans, including fiscally conservative Paul Ryan, voted against a compromise bill that would reopen the government and prevent default, while 285 members (all Democrats and some Republicans) voted to pass it. The piece argues that Ryan's vote against averting default undermines his reputation for fiscal responsibility, and that any truly responsible leader would have prioritized the country's interests over political posturing.

Permalink

Unsealed court-settlement documents reveal banks stole $trillions' worth of houses - Boing Boing

Unsealed court documents reveal the full scope of bank fraud during the 2008 mortgage crisis: major lenders committed felonies by forging ownership documents to foreclose on homes they didn't legally own, after bungling the title transfers required when mortgages were securitized into bonds. The $95 million settlement paid by the banks was less than one percent of the trillions in stolen property value, and the legal system's failure to prosecute has allowed banks to continue foreclosing with fraudulent documents, leaving millions of homes with clouded titles that some cannot even be sold.

Permalink

Eminent domain and the decline of Detroit

Detroit's decades of aggressive use of eminent domain for "economic development"—most infamously the 1981 Poletown case, where 4,000 residents were displaced to build a General Motors factory—ultimately destroyed more development than it created and contributed to the city's eventual bankruptcy. Justice James Ryan's dissent presciently warned that the project would fail to deliver promised growth and that constitutional protections had been sacrificed to corporate interests, a prediction borne out by subsequent events.

Permalink

Freakonomics » One Thought About the Two Deaths in Asiana Airlines Flight 214

A Boeing 777 crashed in San Francisco on July 6, 2013, killing only two people—a remarkably low toll that could easily have been catastrophic. The piece uses this accident to highlight a striking disparity in media attention: while the crash dominated nearly every U.S. news outlet's coverage, roughly 143,000 people have died in traffic accidents since the last fatal U.S. commercial flight in 2009, yet receive a fraction of the attention. The author questions whether the crash's rarity alone justifies its blanket coverage as the top story, or whether news judgment relies too heavily on anomaly rather than actual human cost.

Permalink

The Biggest Price-Fixing Scandal Ever - Politics News

Rolling Stone's 2013 investigation reveals that major global banks have systematically manipulated multiple financial benchmarks—particularly Libor (interest rates) and ISDAfix (swap prices)—that affect trillions of dollars in assets worldwide, from mortgages to municipal bonds to pension funds. The article traces how the voluntary, unverified reporting system that underpins these benchmarks creates inherent opportunities for collusion, with traders even exchanging manipulated data for champagne and sushi, while settlements have been minimal and no individual executives faced criminal prosecution. More troubling still, the same structural vulnerabilities exist across numerous other markets—gold, silver, commodities—suggesting systematic, institution-wide corruption that regulators are only beginning to uncover and that courts have proven reluctant to punish.

Permalink

Untitled (http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/dec/28/after-the-sheikhs-christopher-m-davidson-review?CMP=twt_gu)

Christopher Davidson argues that the Gulf monarchies have survived through a combination of oil wealth, modern institutions grafted onto traditional authority, and strategic spending on services and Western support, but that internal pressures—youth unemployment, rising expectations amplified by social media, and external threats like Iran's nuclear program—are building toward potential collapse within two to five years. Andrew Hammond's analysis of Saudi Arabia specifically debunks claims of meaningful reform, showing that despite gestures like women driving, the regime remains fundamentally unchanged in its denial of political participation, instead channeling citizens toward consumption and religious observance while maintaining arbitrary dynastic power.

Permalink

It's Global Warming, Stupid - Businessweek

Hurricane Sandy's devastating impact—40 deaths, $50 billion in losses, millions without power—illustrates how climate change amplifies severe weather events even if it doesn't directly cause individual storms. Scientists and corporate reinsurers increasingly agree that warming oceans provide more energy for storms, the atmosphere retains more moisture, and altered Arctic patterns can intensify coastal hurricanes, with evidence suggesting these mechanisms were at work in Sandy specifically. The piece argues that despite political gridlock and declining public concern about climate change, the U.S. must pursue pragmatic solutions including natural gas as a bridge fuel, carbon pricing mechanisms, improved disaster infrastructure, and renewed federal commitment to climate negotiations—otherwise, increasingly frequent catastrophic storms will continue destabilizing the economy.

Permalink

TaxVox » Blog Archive » About the 47 Percent Who Don’t Pay Federal Income Tax: Mitt, Meet Andrea

Andrea, a home health aide earning $8.40 per hour, exemplifies why Romney's "47 percent" characterization misses the mark: she pays substantial payroll taxes and would owe federal income tax without the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit, which are specifically designed to encourage work among the poor rather than enable dependency. The author argues that these tax credits are fundamentally different from entitlements—they reward labor and help workers like Andrea climb out of poverty—while the real tax subsidies disproportionately benefit the wealthy through deductions like mortgage interest, which dwarf the benefits low-income workers receive.

Permalink